Germany
Election trend
Parties

Germany: Poll by Institut Wahlkreisprognose from 22.02.2024

Polling data

CDU/CSU
28.5
+1.0
AfD
19.0
±0.0
SPD
14.0
-1.5
Grüne
12.5
±0.0
BSW
8.5
-0.5
FDP
5.5
-1.0
Linke
2.0
-0.5
FW
2.0
+2.0
Sonst.
8.0
+0.5
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
CDU/CSU
+4.4
AfD
+8.7
SPD
-11.7
Grüne
-2.3
BSW
FDP
-6.0
Linke
-2.9
FW
-0.4
Institut Wahlkreisprognose – 1300 respondents – 21.02.2024-22.02.2024
Next election: 2025
The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2025.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Germany from Institut Wahlkreisprognose shows the following results: CDU/CSU 28.5%, AfD 19%, SPD 14%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 12.5%, BSW 8.5%, FDP 5.5%, Die Linke 2% and Freie Wähler 2%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.7 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-11.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, FDP and SPD. With 36.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. For this purpose, 1300 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (21.02.2024 - 22.02.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
SPD
100
Grüne
89
BSW
61
FDP
39
CDU/CSU
205
AfD
136
Majority requires 316 seats
CDU/CSU + SPD + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
394
CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW
366
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + BSW
355
CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP
344
CDU/CSU + AfD
341
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + FDP
333
CDU/CSU + SPD
305
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
294

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The survey took place between 21.02.2024 and 22.02.2024 among 1300 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 28.5%, AfD 19%, SPD 14%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 12.5%, BSW 8.5%, FDP 5.5%, Die Linke 2% and Freie Wähler 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.