Latest polls from Allensbach
Rating of parties
Institute often rates CDU/CSU higher
In 58% of election polls, Allensbach rates CDU/CSU higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates SPD higher
In 41% of election polls, Allensbach rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Allensbach pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.1 percentage points.
Average ranking
Compared to other institutes' accuracy in pre-election polls, Allensbach's average ranking is 3.0.
1x the most accurate prediction
2
0x the second best prediction
3
0x the third best prediction
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0x on rank 4
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1x on rank 5
Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach
The Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach, or Allensbach Institute for short, was founded in 1948 and tends to belong to the conservative spectrum. Despite statistically high error rates of two to three percentage points in opinion polls, the Allensbach Institute gives values for the parties in the decimal range in its Sunday poll. In 1992 and 1996, there was public criticism of polls on the state elections in Baden-Württemberg, in which the institute deliberately set the values of the party Die Republikaner much too low.