Latest voting intention survey by Allensbach for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Allensbach, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 37%, AfD 17%, SPD 15%, Grüne 10%, BSW 7.5% and FDP 4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1049 people during the period 14.11.2024 - 14.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by FAZ.
1049 participants
14.11.2024 - 14.11.2024
Allensbach
FAZ
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
109
17.3%
Grüne
73
11.6%
BSW
54
8.6%
Union
270
42.9%
AfD
124
19.7%
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
CDU/CSU + BSW
Latest voting intention surveys by Allensbach for the federal states
Rating of parties
Institute often rates AfD lower
In 33% of election polls Allensbach rates AfD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates CDU/CSU higher
In 64% of election polls, Allensbach rates CDU/CSU higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates SPD higher
In 44% of election polls, Allensbach rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Allensbach pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.1 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.63
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 1/12 |
|
1.52
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2017 | 5/10 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.
Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach
The Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach, or Allensbach Institute for short, was founded in 1948 and tends to belong to the conservative spectrum. Despite statistically high error rates of two to three percentage points in opinion polls, the Allensbach Institute gives values for the parties in the decimal range in its Sunday poll. In 1992 and 1996, there was public criticism of polls on the state elections in Baden-Württemberg, in which the institute deliberately set the values of the party Die Republikaner much too low.