Latest voting intention survey by Ipsos for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Ipsos, the parties received the following results: AfD 25%, CDU/CSU 24%, SPD 15%, Die Linke 11%, Grüne 11%, BSW 5% and FDP 4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 05.04.2025 - 05.04.2025.
1000 participants
04.04.2025 - 05.04.2025
Ipsos
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
Linke
76
12.1%
SPD
104
16.5%
Grüne
76
12.1%
BSW
34
5.4%
Union
167
26.5%
AfD
173
27.5%
CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne
AfD + CDU/CSU
85
PolitPro Score
Ipsos achieves a score of 85/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
0.9
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ipsos pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.9 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.7
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2025 | 2/11 |
|
1.15
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 10/12 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.