Latest voting intention survey by Ipsos for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Ipsos, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 19%, SPD 16%, Grüne 13%, BSW 7%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 04.01.2025 - 04.01.2025.
1000 participants
02.01.2025 - 04.01.2025
Ipsos
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
119
18.9%
Grüne
96
15.2%
BSW
51
8.1%
Union
223
35.4%
AfD
141
22.4%
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
Rating of parties
Institute often rates BSW higher
In 31% of election polls, Ipsos rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates SPD higher
In 35% of election polls, Ipsos rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ipsos pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.2 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.15
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 10/12 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.